The AFL season is heating up, and the top-two race is wide open. The Sydney Swans' sudden slide has opened up the race for the top two, while Essendon's surprising upset of GWS has shaken up the wildcard race. With five rounds left, The Run Home analyzes each club's remaining fixture and predicts how the rest of the year will play out.
Projected Finals Bracket
The top six teams will get a bye, and the wildcard finals will be played the week after the home and away season ends.
- Fremantle (19.65 projected wins) - Minor premiers for the first time since 2015.
- Sydney Swans (16.75) - Two wins ahead of Adelaide, Brisbane, and Melbourne due to their strong percentage.
- Hawthorn (16.15) - Easy run, but away to Brisbane in Round 22.
- Brisbane Lions (15.35) - Strong track record of winning finals interstate.
- Adelaide Crows (15.15) - Massive upset of Sydney has opened up second spot.
- Melbourne (14.7) - Chance of finishing 2nd, but percentage is an issue.
- Geelong (13.8) - Path to the top four is narrow.
- Western Bulldogs (13.5) - Almost locked into the finals.
- Collingwood (12.45) - Two-and-a-half win margin with five weeks left.
- St Kilda (11) - Move into the projected top 10 after Essendon's upset.
- GWS Giants (11.75) - Least predictable team, but 12 wins should get them in.
- Carlton (10.35) - Light at the end of the tunnel, but tough path to 12 wins.
- North Melbourne (9.3) - Tough fixture, but still in the hunt.
- Gold Coast Suns (9) - 60% chance of playing finals if they win all five remaining games.
- Port Adelaide (8) - Slipping out of contention.
- West Coast Eagles (5.4) - Slipping out of contention.
- Essendon (2.7) - Slipping out of contention.
- Richmond (2.9) - Slipping out of contention.
Key Talking Points
- Fremantle's strong percentage and home advantage make them favorites for the minor premiership.
- Sydney's losing skid has opened up the top-two race, but Hawthorn's easy run could catch them.
- Adelaide's upset of Sydney has opened up second spot, but they're unlikely to pinch it.
- Melbourne's top-four chances are slim due to percentage issues.
- Western Bulldogs are almost locked into the finals, but their percentage means they can't crack the top six.
- GWS's loss to Essendon has shaken up the wildcard race.
- Collingwood's two-and-a-half win margin with five weeks left gives them a fighting chance.
- Geelong's path to the top four is narrow, but a win over Melbourne could secure their spot.
- St Kilda's upset of GWS has given them a clear path to the finals.
- Carlton's light at the end of the tunnel is dimming, but Essendon's upset has kept them in the hunt.
- North Melbourne's tough fixture makes it unlikely they'll make the wildcard.
- Gold Coast's 60% chance of playing finals is based on winning all five remaining games.
- Port Adelaide and West Coast are slipping out of contention.
- Essendon and Richmond are also slipping out of contention.
The AFL season is far from over, and the top-two race remains wide open. With five rounds left, anything can happen, and the wildcard race is shaping up to be a thrilling finish.
